According to projections by the National Institute of Statistics (INS) based on the general population census of 2014, the Guinean population would be 12,218,357 in 2019. According to the same INS data, the percentage of the population aged below 18, not having the voting age, is 51% in 2019. Consequently, the population with the voting age would only be 49% or 5,964,313 out of a population of 12.2 million in 2019.
So according to an analysis made on the basis of data from our own government, Guinea should only have a little less than 6 million voters in 2019. However, it is clear that one can never have 100% of registration on the electoral roll, because for various reasons (displacement, illnesses, professional requirements, access to agents, etc.), not all those of voting age are registered.
Based on the average enrolment rate with our neighbours (Senegal, Ivory Coast, etc.) which are 42%, Guinea should have a file composed of around 5.1 million voters. So where did the CENI get the 8,330,688 voters contained in its file? How can Guinea have a 68% enrolment ratio close to that of France which has a much older population? In France for example, the percentage of the population aged from 0 to 14 is 18.5% while in Guinea this percentage is 45%. Yet in France, the voter registration rate is 70%.
It is therefore inconceivable that with a very young and predominantly rural population, there should be more than 8.3 million voters out of a population of only 12.2 million inhabitants. By comparison, in the last presidential elections of 2019, Senegal with a population of more than 16 million inhabitants, the number of registered was only 6.68 million.
It is clear that the voters’ census is false, and that the electoral register was designed solely to perpetrate fraud. This electoral roll currently contains more than 3.2 million fictitious voters. Any political party that ventures to participate in an election based on this file would only have served to validate an electoral masquerade and will be rolled by the power fraud machine. The majority of these fictitious voters were registered in the strongholds of the ruling party which experienced a sudden and massive growth in their electoral population. The region of Kankan, for example, recorded more than 103% increase in its electorate between 2013 and 2019.
If democracy is the voice of the people by the people, it is unacceptable that part of the people is deprived of their rights of representation. The Guinean Nation cannot be built in injustice, exclusion and lies.
Abdoulaye J Barry